The following was written by Dean Foreman, Ph.D., Chief Economist at the Texas Oil & Gas Association (TXOGA):

Data can cut through the noise and challenge prevailing narratives. So far in 2025, concerns over slowing global growth, lower oil and natural gas prices, and persistent geopolitical uncertainty have fueled expectations of industry belt-tightening—fewer jobs, reduced capital spending, and renewed recession fears.

Yet the evidence in Texas tells a different story.

Earlier this month, TXOGA highlighted upstream job gains in April 2025. The new data from the Texas Workforce Commission (TWC) show that oil and natural gas employment across Texas’ entire energy value chain—upstream, midstream, and downstream—rose by 1.6% year-over-year (y/y) in Q4 2024. Average wages increased even faster, up 7.6% y/y. Leading the job gains were pipeline construction and natural gas extraction—underscoring the ongoing need for infrastructure expansion and broader market access.

“It is encouraging to see the Q4 2024 TWC data finalized and showing a robust year-end finish for the oil and natural gas industry. A 1.6% increase in jobs and a 7.6% increase in wages are significant to the Texas economy as well as the families enjoying the benefits of these good jobs. We are hopeful the global economy gets back on track and America can continue to export much-needed oil and natural gas around the world, with Texas leading the way,” said TXOGA President Todd Staples.

Importantly, Texas’ natural gas growth is closely tied to its oil production. Most of the state’s recent gas gains have come as associated gas—produced alongside crude oil—as well as natural gas liquids (NGLs), which are separated and either sold domestically or exported. Together, Texas’ crude oil and NGL output accounted for 96% of U.S. liquids production growth from February 2024 to February 2025.

This sustained production growth has helped propel the United States to a new milestone in energy security.

Industry momentum despite lower prices

Even in a lower price environment, Texas oil and natural gas employment has continued to rise. In Q4 2024, pipeline construction added 6,674 jobs y/y, reflecting a continued buildout—particularly of intrastate natural gas pipelines from West Texas to Gulf Coast markets. Natural gas extraction followed with an increase of 4,612 jobs. Additional job growth occurred across:

• Pipeline transportation (+6.6% y/y)
• Petrochemical and lubricant manufacturing (+4.2% y/y)
• Asphalt production (+3.1% y/y)
• Fertilizers (+13.8% y/y)
• Other basic organic chemicals (+5.4% y/y)

Notably, NGL extraction—which is necessary to accompany rising liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports—is a key value driver for many of these downstream manufacturing activities. These areas of job growth illustrate how upstream production continues to stimulate broader economic activity across Texas.

Texas leads the way in liquids production growth

Compared with pre-pandemic levels in Q4 2019, Texas has fueled the majority of U.S. liquids production growth—over half of national crude oil gains and more than 63% of NGL growth. That growth culminated in a historic milestone: in 2024, for the first time on record, U.S. production of crude oil and NGLs equaled total domestic petroleum product consumption.

This is more than just a net trade story. It signifies that the U.S. now has the technical capacity to meet its entire petroleum liquid fuel demand from domestic production—without the need for biofuels or accounting offsets.

A shift in energy security thinking

This volume-based benchmark reframes the energy policy conversation. Instead of narrowly focusing on net imports or exports, policymakers can think in terms of whether total U.S. production is sufficient to meet total domestic consumption without caveats around supplementing supply from other sources. This shift carries important implications for infrastructure planning, refining capacity, export policy, and the strategic petroleum reserve.

Texas momentum continues

Texas continues to expand its energy leadership at a time when many anticipated contraction. The industry’s job growth, wage increases, and global relevance reflect years of innovation, investment, and a strong business environment. And the growth story continues, as recent Energy Information Administration (EIA) data from April show rig productivity continued to rise, with y/y increases of:

• 6.6% in the Permian Basin
• 6.9% in the Eagle Ford
• 7.0% in the Haynesville

With strong fundamentals and sustained productivity gains, Texas is well positioned to lead the next phase of global energy development. While the world faces myriad uncertainties, Texas is adapting to change, expanding its capabilities, and preparing to lead in whatever comes next.

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Founded in 1919, TXOGA is the oldest and largest oil and gas trade association in Texas representing every facet of the industry.